🇰🇭🇹🇭 Border dispute turns bloody with a dozen killed

Where to next for Thailand and Cambodia?

Hello friends,

Friday is not a usual day for this newsletter but I’m sure you and I both sat stunned staring at news sites most of yesterday. I truly cannot believe what we’ve seen in the last 24 hours between Thailand and Cambodia.

This is by no means a comprehensive appraisal of how Thursday played out. We still do not know much, especially from Cambodia. Hun Sen has made many posts on Facebook that would suggest he has no appetite for slowing down, but that is just about everything we’ve heard from Phnom Penh so far.

Instead, I’ve got some broad strokes as well as the first comments from other regional leaders responding to the crisis. This is obviously on-going so don’t be surprised to hear from me over the weekend.

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Please join me in hoping for the best,
Erin Cook

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Are we just giving up on the charade that Hun Manet is running the show now? Senate President Hun Sen takes charge, c/o Facebook

We probably don’t need to go too deeply into how we got here. I love this community of nerds! But a quick rehash: a border spat in May, a recorded phone call in June leaked saw Cambodia’s former prime minister Hun Sen get the upper hand on the Shinawatra, Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra sidelined (and politically destroyed for good, no doubt), acting PM Phumtham Wechayachai popped in to the job. Somewhere in there, Cambodia asked the International Court of Justice to weigh in. Cambodian conscription laws have also been rejigged, but I can’t tell if that’s a sideshow or a separate issue. Either way, great report from CamboJA on it here.

That’s the backstory. But we’ve arrived here after a landmine explosion injured Thai military personnel on Wednesday in Ubon Ratchathani, the second incident after three were injured on July 16 in the same province. According to the Bangkok Post, a person lost a leg in each incident.

“The army seriously condemns the inhumane act which violates the principles of international humanitarianism and international agreements and occurred in the Kingdom of Thailand. It is the act of Cambodia. It demands Cambodia take responsibility for the incident which is considered as a serious threat to peace and stability along the border of both countries. The army confirms that it will use all existing mechanisms properly to protect Thai military personnel and citizens from such incidents,” the military said in a statement Wednesday.

This, of course, being a border dispute, means it is contested. It happened in Ubon Ratchathani, says Thailand. No, that’s part of Preah Vihear province and it’s ours, retorts Cambodia. Still, Thailand claims the mines ‘were newly laid along paths that by mutual agreement were supposed to be safe,’ according to the Associated Press. The mines are Russian-made and not those used by the Thai military, Thai officials added. Both sides are pointing fingers at each other over who started it.

The sharp heightening in rhetoric saw a near-total breakdown in diplomatic relations, ahead of Thursday’s horror. Thailand announced it would recall its ambassador on Wednesday, while Cambodia said it had downgraded diplomatic relations to the lowest level Thursday morning. Borders are firmly closed.

Thailand reports at least 12 people were killed Thursday. Of that, 11 were civilians, including two young girls. The deaths are spread across Surin, Ubon Ratchathani and Srisaket provinces, BBC reports.

Bangkok has been far more forthcoming on its version of events. The National Security Council reports drones were deployed around 7.30 am to ‘conduct surveillance of Thai troops near the border.’ From there, Cambodian military personnel armed with rocket-propelled grenades were at the border. Attempts to negotiate were ignored, and an NSC spokesman said the Cambodian military opened fire first at 8.20 am, ‘forcing the Thai side to retaliate.’ Thank you very much to the BBC for this report. There are a lot of great live blogs, but this is very succinct.

What we do know, for sure, confirmed by both sides is Thailand deployed an F-16 jet, which Thailand said was just to aerial bomb a ‘military target.’ I’ve never seen anything like it! A country has aerially bombed a neighbour in Southeast Asia in 2025. I never thought the mouthing off from Hun Sen last month, or the time-out for Paetongtarn Shinawatra, could ever end up here.

I would like to highlight this collection of photos gathered by Al Jazeera. It is worth underlining at all times that this has been a long-running war of words for political elites on both sides, but it’s the very ordinary Thai and Cambodian communities that bear the reality of this.

What the world says

“We are deeply concerned about the current developments and hope that the two sides will resolve their issues properly through dialogue and consultation … China has been and will continue to facilitate peace and dialogue in its own way, playing a constructive role in easing tensions and cooling down the situation,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Thursday, as per China Daily.

China has fascinating relationships with both countries here. Cambodia has edged so closely to Beijing in recent years that the term ‘vassal state’ is occasionally used. Thailand, too, has recently deepened its security relationship with Beijing through collaborations on shutting down scam compounds, many of which are in Cambodia.

Malaysia, this year’s Asean chair, is warning nationals off going to the areas. Good start. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is having a busy week domestically. Still, he planned to speak to both Thai and Cambodian leaders Thursday night.

“This is a very worrying matter, and tonight, I will speak to both prime ministers of Thailand and Cambodia. These two countries are members of Asean and are also countries that are close to Malaysia. I have sent messages to both Prime Ministers and I am expecting to speak to both of them tonight … The least we can expect is for them to stand down and hopefully enter negotiations. Peace is the only option available,” he said, as per the Star.

This is something that has been puzzling me since May. I am an advocate for the existence of Asean, of course. All my friends are nerds, so this is the type of thing I go down yelling at the pub. And this seems to me to be the exact sort of crisis that the bloc is for — an external debacle between two member states. Can’t get the 5PC up, yeah sure. But the other side of that coin is that this sort of thing is precisely where the bloc can do its work. It has not. The bloc, nor other leaders, have been all that interested. That the current secretary-general, Kao Kim Hourn, is one of Cambodia’s most prominent former diplomats isn’t particularly helpful, I’m sure.

Forget Asean, let’s get the United Nations Security Council, says Hun Sen as per Bernama. He posted a letter online addressed to Ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, Pakistan’s permanent representative and current president of the council.

I have not seen anything yet out of Hanoi, but my breath is bated. Vietnam’s impressive squadron of very online nationalists have been hard at work for the last 24 hours drumming up the usual theories and puzzling xenophobia. The leadership, however, has been very quiet.