🇹🇭 Constitutional Court pushes Move Forward a step back
🇱🇦 Laos' time in the Asean sun begins with retreat
Hello friends!
I know I promised this one yesterday, but I was glued to Twitter after a dramatic day in Malaysia. Najib Razak’s potential pardon is still not confirmed, but there have been reports that his sentence on one of his many charges is expected to be cut from 12 years to six. That noise you hear is an apoplectic Daim Zainuddin.
I’ve kept the Thailand section outside the paywall today because it is enormous news that has the potential to shape the months (years!) ahead. If you’d like to support this coverage or to keep a closer watch as it all plays out, consider subscribing here:
It’s a huge one today even without Myanmar, so let’s crack in.
Erin Cook
🇹🇭 Where to now for Move Forward?
It is very dire for Move Forward Party after a Constitutional Court ruling yesterday. Campaigns and efforts to reform Thailand’s draconian lese majeste laws ‘is considered an attempt to overthrow the Thai system of democracy with the monarch as the head of State,’ as the Thai Enquirer put it. This is despite — or because of — the immense electoral success of the party last year, which analysts at home and abroad credited with, in part, MFP’s push for reform.
What happens next is something to watch closely. The party has not (yet) been banned from politics, Jonathan Head at the BBC reports. But a ruling on election law violation at the same court in 2020 saw the dissolution of Future Forward. I’m trying really hard to hedge what I write and not to be overly doomsday so let’s turn to Head: ‘The verdict carries no immediate penalty, but is widely expected to be used to justify dissolving Move Forward, and banning its leaders from politics for several years.’
This challenge was brought to the courts by lawyer Theerayut Suwankesorn, who argued that campaigning to repeal and/or amend lese majeste, known as 112 for its section of the constitution, breached Section 49. “The election campaign calling for an amendment to the section shows the accused [the MFP and Mr Pita] have an intention to subvert the monarchy,” the court found in its judgement, as per the Bangkok Post.
According to the ruling, Pita and MFP must “stop expressing opinions, speaking, writing, printing, advertising and communicating by any other means” in efforts to reform 112. “Any action that is destructive to the institution is considered an attempt to overthrow it,” the court said, as per the Guardian.
In the Thai Enquirer, Lynn Sasinpong’s immediate thoughts are instructive. For MFP supporters, it’s a dark day for trust in the judiciary. “The lack of clarity on the scope of what is permissible for legislators to do, in the legitimate exercise of lawmaking, may have a chilling effect,” Lynn writes. The party is already facing a challenge that could see it dissolved with petitions to both the Election Commission and the National Anti-Corruption Commission. How does a party battle for its survival, while keeping to the promises made to the electorate about reform?
As an aside, one thing I found interesting in Duncan McCargo’s Future Forward, on the rise and fall of the party, was the explicit nurturing of a second generation down from Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and his colleagues. This was done with the express knowledge that dissolution was always a possibility. That has continued with Move Forward — and the Pita Limjaroenrat case shows why. I don’t have much insight into what a potential third iteration of the movement would look like, but it’s something I’ll be keeping an eye out for.
Earlier this week, commentator Pravit Rojanaphruk was feeling very cynical about what would happen and suggested an immediate dissolution could happen. While that didn’t happen (yet) his piece is worth reading in full. In his trademark style, Pravit mulls a return to the streets of Bangkok but it’s the royalist factions that have him nervous: “My concern is when it comes to the issue of public expression of loyalty to the throne, royalists or those who pretend to be royalists tend to overdo it.”
An interesting point he makes sits alongside that made by Lynn above. While the MFP has to balance its support base and stay within the lines, so does the judiciary. “Dissolving the Move Forward Party for pledging to amend the royal defamation law could send a clear signal to young Move Forward Party supporters that there is no hope for change within the prevailing political system,” Pravit writes.
And it’s only February!
Elsewhere, Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s one-woman soft power machine is going full bore. She’s promised to amend censorship laws — not about the monarchy, though! — for locally-produced films and TV shows, Nikkei Asia reports. I’m a huge fan of Thailand’s coy romcoms, so can’t wait to see what happens there. The country has also introduced a new visa-free option for Muay Thai practitioners who can now enjoy 90 days to get punched in the head and post on Instagram.
Bank of Thailand cannot go it alone. That’s the message from the central bank this week after it said monetary policy cannot address structural issues within the economy. The government wants a rate cut but what we really need is a boost in productivity, higher quality exports and for tourism to boom again, the bank said in a statement as per Reuters.
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