🇹🇭 Down but not entirely out in Bangkok
Pita falls short of required votes — now what?
Hello friends!
I have been down and out this week with a horrendous cold. Never fun, but this week has been unusually busy! Today we’ll get to Thailand and then a look at the rest of what we’ve missed on Monday.
Ken Mathis Lohatepanont has done a brilliant job for the Thai Enquirer laying out the votes and how exactly yesterday happened. It’s so good I shan’t try to rehash it and instead direct all readers there. Instead, I’ve taken a look at a few of the other moving pieces.
I will issue a brief disclaimer: I’m still quite under the weather and this is super complicated so if there are any mistakes or things that don’t make sense, please know I tried!
Good luck out there, Thailand. Stay safe!
Erin Cook
The Election Commission Moves
The Election Commission on Tuesday forwarded its case for suspending Pita Limjaroenrat to the Constitutional Court. The EC’s case hinges on the 42,000 shares in iTV, a media organisation shut down in 2007, which Pita inherited from his father. Thai Enquirer has previously run an excellent explainer on the shares and the tricky mess.
He will face a charge of knowingly running for office while in violation of electoral law — lawmakers in Thailand are banned from media ownership — and faces enormous fines and being barred from both sitting in parliament and voting in elections at all. The AP reports Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam previously said it could be grounds for a whole new election.
“I think I was treated unfairly as I had not been given a chance to clarify my position before the EC sent the case to the court,” Pita told a TV audience on Wednesday night, as reported by Nikkei Asia. He was backed up by other Move Forward heavy-weights, including secretary-general Chaithawat Tulathon who said the party has all faith in Pita as PM candidate.
The court declined to make a ruling Wednesday, which cleared the road for yesterday’s vote. It also seemingly ignored a request to suspend Pita until it is resolved.
The EC has been widely slammed for what is seen as a cynical, if not plainly partisan, move. In an astonishingly uncritical report from Bangkok Post, the electoral body said detractors may simply have misunderstood the case and the EC’s role. It has acted in accordance with Section 82 of the constitution, which compels a complaint to be forwarded to the courts after an investigation. That the investigation has been chipping away for months but still sent to the court the day before the vote is simply unusual timing, I’m sure!
“The EC isn’t in a position to make the final judgement as to whose MP status becomes invalid because of what reason. And it hasn’t rushed (Pita’s case) as accused,” the agency said in a statement, as per Bangkok Post.
Still, the move has given senators not keen on Pita a vague air of legitimacy in voting against him. That, paired with Move Forward’s policy of amending Article 112, the country’s infamous lese-majeste law, was widely cited in the Senate.
Senator Kamnoon Sidhisamarn addressed the joint sitting before the vote and flagged 112. He said it would dilute the power of the constitution to protect the monarchy and lead to defamation online, Khaosod reports. Hold on, we’re not there yet, Pita seemed to say in response, noting that the eight-party loose coalition led by Move Forward had so far discussed only leadership decisions — they haven’t even gotten to legislation yet.
(An interesting aside: when I looked up Kamnoon Sidhisamarn for more information I found this Bangkok Post piece from 2020 in which he argued against the military-appointed senate voting for prime minister, citing the failures of the National Council for Peace and Order reforms.)
This is a point that has previously been flagged often by others as highly-contentious within the group and a possible flashpoint. Some of Move Forward’s more vocal supporters have called for the outright abolition of the rule, while the conservative flank, like within Pheu Thai, wants to keep their hands off it.
So, what happens now?
“I accept it but I’m not giving up. I will not surrender and will use this time to garner more support,” Pita told media after the vote.
Move Forward and the coalition will put Pita up again for another vote next week, but the battle lines have been drawn. I expect we’ll see a lot of analysis in the coming days that I’m really looking forward to, but I do think the consensus will be: short of a miracle, it’s almost impossible to see how Pita will win. I hope maybe I’m just being overly defeatist after a week of lying delirious in bed and getting worked up over unelected senators. Maybe we’ll all be surprised next week.
I’m not going to make any bold predictions — although I will say I’m curious to see if Pheu Thai breaks away and what Paetongtarn Shinawatra does in the coming days. Instead, I want to focus on what the people do.
Small groups of Move Forward supporters were spotted outside parliament yesterday watching the vote and there have been flash demonstrations all week.
"You have a lot of elements for democracy, but at the very least you need an election. And that election should mean something. Why should I bother coming to vote any more, because my vote doesn't matter any more obviously," one Move Forward supporter said bitterly, as described by BBC.
It’s a sentiment that appears to be widely shared. Thammasat University’s student council met last night to condemn the senate. The school is one of the most politically active campuses in the country and has a long history of leadership in pro-democracy movements.
“Your action is disgusting and disgraceful to the constitutional monarchy system and the country’s political history. You ignore your roles as being representatives of Thai people who are duty-bound to perform tasks for the benefits of the nation and people’s well-being,” the students’ Standing Committee said in a statement, as per Bangkok Post.
As is often the case in these pages when discussing Thailand, if I open with Ken Mathis Lohatepanont I surely must close with Thitinan Pongsudhirak. His column for Bangkok Post today places the events of this week into a historical context. It’s certainly worth reading in full but I’ll leave you with his final conclusion:
But their seeming denial of Mr Pita from the premiership and Move Forward from government suggests that conservative forces are having to strike back harder than ever, looking outwardly strong but perhaps internally weak. Despite repeated polls that have not led to truly democratic outcomes, Thailand’s centres of power are essentially saying “this is the authoritarian way we are going to have it, do you have a problem with that?”
Excellent analysis.