The week ahead: Cambodia is playing silly games with citizenship
Thailand polling shows deep unease at political situation
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That’s a bunch of admin done. Here’s one to flag before we crack in this week: Malaysia’s former prime minister and eldest of elder statesmen, Mahathir Mohamad, was hospitalised yesterday, citing fatigue. It comes just days after his 100th birthday.
Okay, let’s crack in
Erin Cook
🇰🇭 Fall in line, or get out, says Cambodia
Cambodia is on the road to revoking citizenship after the National Assembly approved the move — unanimously, of course — on Friday. This would empower officials to strip Cambodians of their citizenship for ‘foreign collusion,’ CamboJA reports. Former prime minister and current senate president Hun Sen has been hot on the plan since last month when he singled out nationals who “side with foreign nations to harm our country.”
Justice Minister Koeut Rith said it will move quickly into becoming law: “If you betray the nation, the nation will not keep you,” he said. He played down the obvious criticisms that this is a rotten thing to do and is clearly targeted against dissidents. If you’ve done nothing wrong, you’ve got nothing to worry about! “Those loyal to the nation won’t face revocation,” he said. Who is the judge of what is suitably ‘loyal,’ however.
“We are deeply concerned that the Cambodian government, given the power to strip people of their citizenship, will misuse it to crack down on its critics and make them stateless,” Amnesty International’s Montse Ferre told Al Jazeera.
I haven’t seen a firm deadline here, but the government is clearly keen to get this done asap.
🇹🇭 Thais what change — but what does that look like?
Let’s mix this up, says the vast majority of Thais, according to new polling. The National Institute of Development Administration’s July polling shows a staggering 80% of respondents want sidelined prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to resign or for the whole darned parliament to be dissolved and everyone get to have a say again, the Bangkok Post reports. That’s 42.37% and 39.93% respectively. An absolutely untenable situation!
Prayuth Chan-o-cha must be feeling good. The former prime minister served from the 2014 coup until the 2023 election, and he’s the top pick for who Thais want to see in charge with 32.82%, the polling found. It’s not as bonkers as it sounds (nah, it is). Ken Lohatepanont wrote about the possibility earlier in the month over at Coffee Parliament. Prayuth ran first place, with ‘can’t think of anyone’ coming second on 27.94%.
Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has a theory. Those senators dobbing in Paetongtarn to the courts is all about them dodging an investigation about voting collusion, the Nation reports. “I believe the complaint [against Paetongtarn] is aimed at toppling the government. They want the government to fall within July to solve a problem that threatens them,” he said during an event held by the paper last week. It certainly seems plausible, but this has all gotten so sloppy that I think it may come down to this.
🇮🇩 Bonhomie with mon amie, who needs the US!
President Prabowo Subianto continues his world tour this week. He’s heading to France for Bastille Day celebrations. It’s at the personal invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron, and the Francophile must be flying with excitement.
That’s after the weekend’s swing through Brussels, where he and Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto hatched out the final details of a long-awaited trade deal between the European Union and Indonesia. Airlangga is very confident it’s basically done and will be launched in Jakarta in the third quarter of the year.
Can’t blame him for getting ahead of himself. Airlangga led the delegation in negotiating against Trump’s tariffs — an effort that did not pay off at all despite truly decent efforts. Check out Reformasi further below for more.
The relief is almost palpable: “This is certainly a milestone amid the uncertainty between Indonesia and the EU. Our products can now enter Europe at zero tariffs,” he said in a video to journalists yesterday, as per the Jakarta Post.
It’s not just the Indonesians who are stoked. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is very keen for what this could mean for Europe, itself facing destructive Trump tariffs. “There's a lot of untapped potential in our trade relationship, and therefore, this agreement comes at the right time. The new agreement will open new markets. It will create more opportunities in key industries. Business activities in agriculture, automotive, and services will massively benefit from it,” she said, as per the Jakarta Globe.
🇲🇲 With friends like these!
Thank you, wonderful President Trump, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing said in a response to Myanmar’s tariff letter. (That’s now 40%) He used this chance to thank Trump for getting rid of Radio Free Asia and Voice of America. “Assessments influenced by one-sided misinformation and distorted narratives ultimately led to the imposition of economic sanctions on Myanmar,” he said in the letter. Min Aung Hlaing, to be clear, said that. It does sound like it could’ve come from someone else though, doesn’t it? (The Irrawaddy)
If anyone is left at the US State Department there’s no doubt a deep sense of unease rolling along the Southeast Asia desk. “It’s certainly the first public indication I’ve seen of US acknowledgement of [Min Aung Hlaing] and the junta,” Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group said. Previous private communications from the US “would almost certainly not have been from Trump of course.” (AFP)
Actually, what happened in Myanmar is kinda like what happened to you, Mr Trump. “Similar to the challenges you encountered during the 2020 election of the United States, we also experienced major electoral fraud and significant irregularities,” Min Aung Hlaing said. Be a friend, give us a 10-20% instead. (The Guardian)Desperate Rohingya refugees are heading to Cox’s Bazar in a fresh wave, seeking safety after violence in Rakhine State continues to escalate. “This is the largest movement of Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh since 2017,” Babar Baloch, a spokesperson for UNHCR, said during a briefing on Friday. “As the conflict in Myanmar continues unabated, we are advocating with the Bangladeshi authorities to provide managed access to safety and asylum for civilians fleeing the conflict.” (UN News)
It’s a crisis for Bangladesh, which has struggled to support the nearly one million-strong community for years. “With the acute global funding crisis, the critical needs of both newly arrived refugees and those already present will be unmet, and essential services for the whole Rohingya refugee population are at risk of collapsing unless additional funds are secured,” Baloch said.The UNHCR warns that without a fresh injection of support — just 35% of the agency’s call for $255m has been met — health services will be ‘severely disrupted’ by September and food assistance ends in December. (Al Jazeera)The junta continues to pummel the Sagaing region with a fresh airstrike Friday killing at least 23, including four children. The strike took aim at a monastery Hlaing Bwa, head of the Sagaing District People's Administration, told media had been home to nearby residents fleeing violence across the region. (Reuters)
🎧 This week on Reformasi
On Reformasi this week, Kevin and I chat about a horrendous ferry disaster, Gibran Rakabuming Raka being put to work (let’s hope it doesn’t detract from his posting schedule) and where to next for Indonesia’s negotiating with the US tariffs.
Numbers game
100%. That’s how much of Indonesia’s energy will be generated by renewables by 2035, President Prabowo Subianto said during a press conference with President Lula da Silva in Brasilia last week. “The target, of course, is 2040, but my experts tell me we can achieve this much faster,” he added, as reported by Bloomberg. Currently, Indonesia is one of the world’s greatest emitters with 80% of the country’s energy needs provided by fossil fuels. Brazil probably has some tips.
In snaps
Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono meets US counterpart Marco Rubio on the sidelines of last week’s Asean foreign ministers meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Rubio’s appearance comes as the US guts the State Department, names some truly absurd picks for ambassadors to the region, stings Southeast Asia with bonkers tariffs and recognises the Burmese junta as a legitimate government. Thanks for coming!
Australia’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, is just happy to be here. Wong was born in Kota Kinabalu, in Malaysia’s Sabah, which is very cool when it comes to Australia-Asean!
Reading list
Darkness will continue to fall: Myanmar’s intractable electricity crisis — Leo Min, Myanmar Now
Without these transmission lines, 90 percent of the electricity generated from the proposed Myitsone dam project will go to Yunnan Province across the border, and not to the Myanmar heartland. For liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas-fired power plant projects, issues include where to get a reliable supply of fuel—whether to import it or source it by pipeline from gas fields and regasification stations inside the country—and the fluctuating prices of gas and LNG. The withdrawal of the Hong Kong-based VPower company from Yangon underscored the latter issue, with the rising price of LNG, depreciation of the kyat, and scarce dollar reserves all serving as factors in the firm’s decision to exit Myanmar.
'I created it myself': The boy behind the viral 'aura farming' boat racing dance — Fan Wang, Astudestra Ajengrastri and Johanes Hutabarat, BBC
The concern is real, Dikha's mother Rani Ridawati told BBC Indonesia.
"The main concern is that he might fall," she said, but added that he was a strong swimmer.
"Sometimes if he falls accidentally or suddenly, I worry he might get hit by the paddles.
"But if he falls, there's already a rescue team. The rescue team is in place," she said.
Philippine hero Manny Pacquiao readies for title bout without a win in 6 years — Tom Gray, Nikkei Asia
Legendary boxer Manny Pacquiao first became a world champion at the age of 19 on December 4, 1998. The Clinton-Lewinsky scandal was in full swing, households were transitioning from VHS videotape to DVD, and Google had just been founded.
It's incredible to think — and disconcerting for some — that the great Pacquiao will return to the ring as a 46-year-old on July 19, 2025. More alarming is that the former champ will be vying for a legitimate world title, despite not having won a fight in six years. His last pro appearance was a points loss to Cuban technician fighter, Yordenis Ugas in August 2021.
Erin Cook, Referring to this long-standing offer for free premium memberships for all Asean and Timorese nationals, I am an ASEAN national. Can I get your free premium membership?? 🤔